Shigeru Ishiba
The election of Shigeru Ishiba, a former defense minister, as the new head of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and incoming prime minister could signal a continuation or potential acceleration of Japan's recent military buildup. This development comes amid growing regional tensions, particularly concerning communist China's assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific region.
Japan has been gradually increasing its military capabilities and defense spending in recent years, partly in response to perceived threats from communist China and North Korea. Some key aspects of this buildup include:
1. Increased defense budget: Japan's defense spending has been rising consistently, with the 2024 budget reaching a record high of around 6.8 trillion yen (approximately $46 billion USD).
2. Constitutional reinterpretation: In 2014, Japan reinterpreted its pacifist constitution to allow for "collective self-defense," enabling it to come to the aid of allies under attack.
3. Equipment modernization: Japan has been investing in modern military hardware, including F-35 stealth fighters, Aegis destroyers, and discussions about acquiring long-range strike capabilities.
4. Expanded regional partnerships: Japan has been strengthening military ties with countries like Australia, India, and Southeast Asian nations, partly as a counterbalance to China's influence.
5. Enhanced US-Japan alliance: The two countries have been deepening their military cooperation, including joint exercises and the potential for increased US troop presence in Japan.
The election of Ishiba, known for his expertise in defense matters, will likely lead to a further emphasis on military preparedness. However, it's important to note that Japan's military development remains constrained by its constitution and public opinion, which still largely favors a defensive posture.
Regarding the US buildup in Australia, this is part of the broader Indo-Pacific strategy aimed at maintaining regional stability. The AUKUS pact between Australia, the UK, and the US, which includes provisions for nuclear-powered submarines for Australia, is a significant development in this context.
As for a potential military alliance between Japan and Taiwan, while there has been increasing unofficial cooperation, any formal military alliance would be highly sensitive given the complex relationship between China and Taiwan.
It's crucial to understand that while military preparedness is one aspect of regional security, diplomacy and economic cooperation also play vital roles in maintaining stability in the Asia-Pacific region. The situation continues to evolve, and it will be important to monitor how Ishiba's leadership might influence Japan's defense policies and regional dynamics going forward.
War is coming, like it or not.
