A Blood Letting

ROUGH TRANSCRIPT - NO EDITING

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Good morning, good afternoon or good evening. It's Monday and it's April the seventh, 2025 and what I'm going to do today is we're going to use our little fancy drawing thing here on the computer machine, and we're going to talk a little bit about what's going on in the stock market, real simple stuff. And so I want to begin talking about debt. You know, it seems like everybody in the world has been complaining and carrying out about debt. We want to reduce the debt. We want to reduce the debt. We want to reduce the debt. Everybody wants to reduce the debt. But now that Trump is doing it, they don't really want to do it. They want to maintain the status quo. So a lot of people, even you know that guy in Kentucky, Rand Paul, you know, they say one thing, and they mean the other. So they talk out of one side of the mouth, and they talk out of the other side of the mouth. It gets old, you know that? And I know that the other thing is, we're running this deficit. I mean, trillions of dollars adding up to we're going to be $100 trillion in debt if we don't do something. You can't the nation cannot survive. What's interesting is that there's a lot of people,

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oh, all of these big, you know, financial firms, okay, they big financial firms always talking about, oh, we got to do something, we got to do something. We got to do something. Well, we got to do something. But the problem is, when it comes right down to it, when they really want to do it, they don't want it done. And I'll explain some of the reasons why. So everybody's been complaining about the debt and deficit.

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Everybody's been screaming about, oh, AI, this, AI, this, AI, is going to solve all of our problems. You still need real

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people.

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To do things. That's all there is to it. Not everybody can be in technology. Some people are going to continue to need to throw it. Use a shovel. I in the garage.

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All of my homes, there's at least a shovel. There's a spade in the back for the flowers and that

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you still have to have people who work with their hands. Remember Mike Rowe and dirty jobs? There's you got to have people doing real things. Okay, so AI is great, but it's not the cure all to end all. And if you can go back to the Luddites and looms. They lost their minds when looms came around. And you know, obviously we know the story there Detroit, United Auto Workers, they lost their mind over robotics.

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I mean, it is what it is, but we want people to have a living wage. Well, here's the thing,

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you have these jobs and they pay this to Americans, you get all these people coming in who are willing to work for a whole lot less.

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And profit wise, you know, well, hey, we got to have profits. Got to have profits. Got to have profits. So you complain when the companies hire these people, but at the same time, you complain when profit margins aren't there for stock performance,

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you know, you can't have you can't have it both ways all the time.

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Globalization, everybody talked about globalization. Nixon opened the door to China, ping pong, diplomacy, oh, that's the best thing in the world. Look, the reality in life is simply this. When you get here's the world, right, here's here's China, here's the US. When you got all this stuff coming over here and nothing's going back, that's called a trade deficit. That's not good. Okay, not good.

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Good for them, bad for us. Okay?

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In fact, what we all do, we all just reverse this a little bit. You know, it's, it's

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good for them, bad for us. We'll do the same thing. We'll put little eyes here, and put ears and all that. It just, it's the same thing.

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It comes a time when you you have to wake up and smell the roses.

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Everybody says, Oh, you got to bring manufacturing back. Gotta bang. Bring manufacturing back. Remember the movie swing vote with Kevin Costner?

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Okay, that's what this is all about.

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There comes a time when it's got to change.

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Go back to the Vietnam War. I know most of you don't know anything about the Vietnam War, I do. I have clients that served in Vietnam.

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I didn't got close, but they ended it, thank God, before I got had to go there. But in Vietnam, we had these things. We know we had Vietnam, right? Look something like this, right? And we had Cambodia and Laos, oh, they could run over here, and then they could run down and attack and but we couldn't get them over there. Democrats used to race holy Kane. Oh, my God, he can't, you can't cross into another country's borders. Oh, where's an undeclared war, Nixon's undeclared war. You know, everybody blame Nixon.

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It was Nixon's war. Well, so.

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Well, but everybody forgets it was

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LBJ Johnson that ramped everything up. It wasn't until Nixon started dropping the B 50 twos were flying over there and just bombing them to the stone age. Oh, we can't do that. You want us out. We got to get out. We need a safe face. What you want to just cut and run.

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Remember Kissinger and diplomacy and all that kind of stuff. So when it comes to trade, okay,

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is it fair? So, years ago, we used to call it dumping, and I'll talk about that in just a second, but you know,

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if it's not fair,

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then eventually you will go broke. Okay? This is your wallet, right? This is your wallet. You got your money in here. Eventually there's not going to be anything left. Now, when I talk about dumping, this is a concept that we used to talk about all the time, and so you have this company here, and they got a lot of money, and this guy here has got a great idea, and he's got some money. And so they send people in to rip this guy off. And so they now sounds like Amazon, right? So they begin manufacturing, and they create a competitor right across the street from this guy, cater, here's the roadway. Got a roadway there, and this guy's always got a sale. This guy always got a sale.

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Okay, always got a sale.

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Because this person here is subsidizing them, eventually putting them out of business. And what do they do? Oh, well, now no more sales. They'll say the price was $100 or something. Now they raise the price to 150 this guy was trying to make it at 120 but he couldn't do it because everybody was undercutting him at 100 bucks.

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This is unfair trade practices. Involves nations. Wow. It's not that tough.

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You know these big tuna boats. We used to have tuna boat wars down in South America. They would grab our tuna boats because we were too close to their

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international waters. Used to be three miles and fishing limits, and they basically, these South American countries said, anything within 1000 miles, 200 miles, it's all ours. You can't do anything. Well, China's doing the same thing in the Pacific Ocean. They're claiming all this water is theirs, and they're going after Japanese and South Korean fishing fleets, and they've had attacks.

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How do you take these people on?

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So this is history repeats itself. That's my point. History is always repeating itself. So have we ever had trade wars? Yeah, going back to day number one,

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we've the world has been at war way more than it's ever been at peace. Peace is the anomaly. War is a standard, and if you take the actual physical fighting out of it, we've always had a war, at least when it comes to trade. It's

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always been that way, and it will always be that way. I think it's important to remember what Coolidge said, the business. Let me go back to that. The Business of Government is business, period. The Business of Government is business. Wow. Trump is actually doing that for us. So what we could do is we just keep pussyfooting around like every president before us, everyone. There's very few presidents who have just, you know, they've used a bully pulpit, but very few have, you know, like Roosevelt, not not Franklin, but Teddy Roosevelt speaks softly and carry a big stick. Well, Trump speaks loudly and he carries a big stick. Wow. Just is shocking everybody. But you have all these things you've wanted to have done, and there's a lot of what I call lily livered Republicans and Republicans in name only. I mean, not just the Mitch McConnell's not just

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all of these, you know, pussy footing, Lily liver,

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sucking off the hind tent of the of the government people, you know, no, you got so many real people. Oh, they talk good, tough. They talk tough, even Ted Cruz. But they're pussy footers. They're pussy footers. This is war, and we've got to get back to a war footing. And people think, oh, what Trump, you're going to get us into a war? Well, if we get into war, one of the things we have to do is eliminate waste. We got to cut the bureaucracy. If you're going to bring business back to the country, and not everything is gonna be a white collar job. Look at all these college graduates. We got so many college graduates, especially those of you who are black and Hispanic, especially those of you who come from working class families where you are barely making it and you got student loans galore, and oh, you.

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Celebrate that Biden's gonna pay your loans off. Well, who do you think is paying for it? Who? Yeah. So the problem is, is that we have all these layoffs going on. Oh, layoffs. I just spoke to somebody just recently. Oh, the layoffs are just gonna be terrible. Layoffs have always been terrible. I mean, here's the point, you have VCR tapes. Do you remember VCR tapes? Do you remember when cassettes came out and they were like, so cool. Do you remember when we had real records?

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Remember any of that? Oh, and then we had the beta tapes? Remember betas? They didn't make it. VCRs worked. So when's the last time you put a VCR tape in your VCR tape player? Probably not very often. Then they came out with CDs, right? And it came out with DVDs, right?

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DVDs.

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Now, what does everybody Oh, we have TV, and it's over the airwaves. Is terrestrial, right? And then you might remember we could record things. Oh, wow. I remember a first time. Forgot what the name of that box was,

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something box you could actually record. Wow. This is cool. Instead of, you know, looking for a show. And if, if I'm working and I can't see it. I have to wait till next year or the fall. Used to work like this. You have spring and fall, and all the new shows came out, and then you'd have repeats, and then some new fall, fall shows and and be repeats. It was a real cycle, but if you missed the show, you have to talk to your friends around the water cooler to find out what happened. Now you can record it. Wow, that was great. Now we have streaming.

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I remember when HBO came out, Home Box Office,

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amazing. That was days when you had MTV. It was actually a movie. I mean, Music Television. You had people like Adam curry, people with gigantic hair, and you had people doing moonwalks. Oh yeah, Michael Jackson. Now, if some of these names and people you just don't remember, that's the point. You didn't live the history. It's called recency bias. Everything is judged upon what's going on recently. Well,

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history repeats itself. A cleansing getting rid of old things to get new is critical. They're talking about, oh, trade, oh trade, cars gonna cost so much more money. Okay, yeah, I get it sucks,

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but do you think a little bit of pain is worth the gain? That's really what it comes down to. I'll talk about that in just a few moments. So should we still be employing the hundreds of 1000s of auto workers in Detroit, which is an absolute disaster here, been to Detroit. Should we keep having those people putting in rivets? Bang, bang, bang, making sure? Or can we have robots, highly intelligent people, doing what they're doing, the these longshoremen unions. Oh, we got to have more longshoremen. Oh, we can't. Yeah, we don't need as many, because we have cranes and robotics and massive tractors. Is called force multipliers. It is what it is. So going back to 2000 Oh, eight and nine or in 10, right here, take, take a look at this. Okay? This is reality, COVID and all that COVID a manufactured gain of function.

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Genetic modifier was not a virus. Call it a virus if you want. Got to know what the difference between RNA and DNA viruses are. And so they took a genetic modifier, and tons of people got sick who shouldn't have gotten sick. People got shots and still got sick, and they blamed those people like me who didn't get a shot. Oh, you're super spreaders. You're causing it. Yeah, I also was very into on a daily basis, strength endurance and flexibility, training with natural nutrition, hydration, everything in moderation, getting a lot of sleep, not eating stupid food, and not eating drinking carbonated waters and not getting drunk every night. I don't do that, you know, not high, don't smoke,

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recovery, not don't have all the extra weight on. Oh yes, I can lose some pounds, and I'm in the process of doing that. But here's the thing, that was a real deal back then. So the economy went to hell in a hand basket because they locked everything down. What they do? Interest rates, oh, they were down in a toilet. If you could fog a mirror, they were giving you money, just like they did in 2008 and nine. We everything fell apart when the in the housing fiasco, because 2006 seven and into eight. Fog Amir, get a loan. Okay? Eight, 2000 890, you never lose money in real estate. Hogwash. When something becomes so outrageous, there's going to be a reckoning. There's going to be a bloodletting. It always has been this way. So, yeah, you had all these cheap loans. Here's the.

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Problem with these cheap loans? A bunch of people got them. A lot of businesses got them. Okay, so Paul, what's the problem with a cheap loan? Cheap loan is, as you can see here, you have five year loans. Corporations borrow moneys and I lend, we lend moneys in terms of five year basis. Then there's an option to renew. Oftentimes, not always, but a lot times you got to repay. Well, if the money was going out at one and half and 2%

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and now that money is at 6789, or higher, because you're in the weeds financially, you took that money and you paid bonuses, and you were just throwing money away. And you know what? You never were profitable. You were on the skids as it was, and the money just kept you afloat. You went public and, oh, you know, everybody made money. Everybody made money. Stock options galore.

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Who got screwed? Bundled, financial product holders, mutual funds, ETFs, 401. Case, 403, B's 457. Plants, tax sheltered annuities, your chair, remainder, trust funds, your pensions. They all guess, ultimately, you the consumer. And I'll show you how that works in a little bit. But the bottom line is, yeah, no, I want to get paid back. You know, in 1987

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in 1987 one day, the stock market dropped just almost 25%

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25%

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in one day. Okay, October 19, 1987 I was in the business. I've been in business a little over a year. I started full time, full time, not part time, which I was before full time on october 1, 1986 I remember going, my God, this is going to be every year like this, had a gentleman come down to me and say, Pauly, tell everybody you can find, beg, borrow and steal and get cash. Why? He said, Look at this. And it was easy to see IBM was trading at less than liquidation value. So guess what? We did buy IBM at the end of the year, stock market was actually up rather than down. Everybody thinks it was down here. It wasn't. It wasn't. There are a lot of memes or a lot of things that people think they know, what? Oh, I know. Global warming. Oh no, global cooling. Oh, well, global change. Miami is going to flood. Well, if everything's flooding, why are rich people still buying property on

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on oceans and lakes and on the Gulf.

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It just, it is what it is. Okay? It's like, PT, Barnum, there's a sucker born every every minute. So here's the problem. You have a lot of people who have this idea that they're a venture capital and capitalists and they want angel money. And so the thing is, you don't build a company to make money. No, you build a company to get market share. And you gotta, we have to burn rate. So you're gonna raise hundreds of millions of dollars. And how long is that gonna last? And eventually, if you don't, you know, go public. The goal is to go public and then sell your your crappy stock to unsuspecting investors. Well, you say, Well, are there really that many unsuspecting investors? Yes and no.

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Here's, here's the way it really works. What you have, you got a lot of people out there, there's, there's no real profit in their business. And so now that Trump is in here, and it's like easy money's done five year period is here, everybody's got a pony up, or else, a lot of companies are failing. I mean, look, joy and fabrics is gone. Here's another one.

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What's the check in place?

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Hooters, bankruptcy. I can go on for hours, all of these companies that are in really tough shape, okay, they're really tough shape. They burn through their money. They burn through their money so there's no real profit there in the first place. And then what happens is you get these insane valuations. I mean crazy valuations.

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There are companies that were worth way more than Ford Motor Company, way more than General Motors, Boeing, I mean, big planes, right? No, no, no, the sock puppet.

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Buy pets.com you might remember pets.com going back into the late 90s and 2000s Oh, they hadn't, yeah, they had enough money to pay for a Super Bowl ad. The thing went belly up, you know? So the bottom line is, you have these insane valuations. Why are they got these valuations? It's funny money. Okay, it's funny money. It's just funny evaluations. Well, that's not funny when you're left holding a bag. The problem is you don't know that you're holding a bag. This is very similar to what happened with the mortgage industry, when banks used to lend money, and what they would do is they would hold the mortgage, okay, in your house. But now what they do is they originate loan origination. Give me, give me my commissions to loan origination and.

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And then what we're going to do is we're going to take all these these people, we're a bundle them up together, and we're called a collateralized mortgage obligation, and we're going to sell that to your pension fund and or to your 401, K and most people don't know what the hell they're invested in. And so when it goes belly up and down, who's holding the bag? You the investor. I mean, that's the right way it works. That is the way it works. So what we have here is institutional manager, sock stuffers. When you have a institutional money manager and, you know, they got friends and like, hey, you need to buy this stock. It's going public. Oh, it's technology in the world. What was it do? It has super pen status. It has, you can write in three different colors and, well, yeah, remember we used to click those things down. Oh, but this is different. Now you just push a button, and when you push the button, that little cartridge goes back and a new one comes down. You don't have to use your finger and slide it down anymore. You just, you know, Oh, that's too much. You just push a button, whoa, ask. Everybody's gonna want the super Magic Pencil writing thing, right? So, yeah, right. Okay, you know, listen, you've taken me to Milan, and we've been to Hong Kong, and, you know, we've been down to Cabo, and you got a great yacht. So yeah, I'll take $30 million of your, of your company stock, and Tarzan over here is going to take another 40 million, and Jane's going to take another 100 million. And so we wind up doing we spread that stock all around, because it's not that much. I mean, we're managing, you know, billions and billions and billions of dollars so, and the damn thing probably won't work, but we got enough Kush, we'll take care of it. So there's, there's, they're like, Christmas sock stuffers crap. You're not going to use. You're going to eventually, oh, that's kind of cute. They throw it away, okay? Or it's like, peanuts, right? Chocolate? Yeah, it's a consumable done.

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That's the point. They spread this stuff. But you the investor, are the one who eventually winds up getting screwed. And that's just the way it is. So the problem is, you also have many, many, many people in the government. They're multi millionaires, many times over, but they're really low level. They're low level government positions. I mean, like Nancy Pelosi, follow her stock trades. It's all insider trading. So what do you expect? Oh, I can't stand the price of gasoline. It's got to come down. This is terrible. We you know, much it costs to Oh, and then the prices come down. And so now oil company stocks come down. Oh, I can't believe my oil stocks prices, my stocks are coming down. We got to impeach Trump for this. What do you want? And as now, when I say you, I'm not speaking to you, that's a rhetorical so if you got mad at that, that's that's a you problem. But you know, these people are screaming, sending all this stuff out, the media picks up on it, because screaming gives attention. It's just a false narrative. It is my intention that the overwhelming majority of these people who don't understand what Trump is doing and are screaming about everything, they're anti American. That's really what they are. This is, this is like, and I'll talk about this in just a second, but it's like Ronald Reagan going into the Bilderberg gate when we had two Germanies. And if you don't know this, we had East Germany and West Germany. And he, you know, Mr. Gorbachev, tear this wall down. He said this very clearly, if not us, who? If not now, when?

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Okay, so, no pain, no gain. I have lifted weights now

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for

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I did this the other day. I have been lifting weights now for 54 years,

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54 years, and

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as I'm getting older, I don't have the same size, don't have the same stamina, but you know what? I got a lot more pain now. I got a lot more pain because I'm older

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than I was when I was younger.

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Sleep a little bit more rest, a little bit more work out every other day, rather than two days one day off. Okay, used to work out five days a week, actually six days a week. I took Sundays off. But if you don't want to gain, you don't have any pain. And so a lot of people are just simply so stuck into their ways, or they're, they're not, they're not just in a rut. I mean, they're so far deep in a rut they can't see out of it. So here, here's, I really believe this. This is most people right now. Oh, everything was great. Everything was great. Oh, it's absolutely wonderful, right? Everything was Wonder. You can see everywhere, but the floor is going down, and the floor was always going to go down. The actual rut is down here. And so what you're like this, you go, Oh, I can't see, I can't see.

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Terrible. Whoa, whoa. Is me.

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Okay. Well, then you figure a way to climb out.

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You figure a way to climb out. You

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either keep walking to find the exit, or you climb out.

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And it's a lot like you

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got to have enough cash. Cash

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is very important when everything goes a heck of a hand basket. Okay, so this guy's been walking around with a lot with a ladder.

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You ain't no need no ladder. We can see over everything, yeah, but what about when we do need it? So some things can be carried to an extreme, but the reality is

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no pain, no gain. And there's an old is. This is as old as the hills. Hard Times breed hard men. That's a fact. Okay, that's a fact. And soft times breed soft men. And we just got a lot of softies, a lot of pussy boys out there. No no if ands or buts about it. I'm a big fan of a fellow by name of Edward C Banfield. And in Banfield, he talked about Indian heavenly city revisited, specifically in chapter three, and about 10 pages into it, he starts really getting into the details of time horizon. Those with a longer time horizon or have more class. So a lot of what these people are talking about today, they have no class, and all they're doing is making and you know what of themselves by talking about things that have no historical basis. Yeah, this is gonna be ugly. Let's have a let's turn it into a fair,

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level playing field, and we're fine. It's like, imagine you work for a law enforcement agency or a fire department, and you study your behind off, right? And you score near the top of the list. So you're looking to get promoted to captain, Lieutenant, Sergeant, whatever the position is, right? Oh, no, no, no, no, no, you scored real high, but two people scored higher than you. And then we have all the DEI hires. Okay? We have to have a male and a female Martian, and then we have to have male and a female Plutonian. And then the mayor really likes people from Uranus, and you know her, so she gets three political appointments, and by time, never gonna get promoted. You know, in some places, everybody is Jewish, everybody's Jewish. The reason is that when promotions come out, they celebrate Passover. Just think about that. So it's time to celebrate Passover.

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And the reality in life is it ain't fair. Well, let's make it fair. Let's make it fair in hiring, in firing, in promotions and in trade. Wow. So yeah, is we want it to be fair, but only under my circumstances. There's a movie out there by the names High Plains Drifter, you know, Clint Eastwood, and the town has been ravaged by these hooligans. And it's ugly say, hire this guy. And you might remember the song like, doo doo doo doo doo doo High Plains Drifter, right? And so he paints the town red, and they shoot and kill a whole bunch of people. Well, I got news for you. You put Trump in office. Why did you put him in office? Because you wanted somebody to get the job done. So again, I'm gonna go back to what Reagan said, if not us, who?

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And if not now, when? I mean, when are we going to do something? So this is a history lesson, real simple. I'm not going to get into all the intricate details. I love talking about Grover, Cleveland. I love talking about the Harrison, you know, Dad and grandson who became president. Love all that kind of stuff. We can talk about the Adams. We talk about the bushes. We've had this monarchy forever in the United States for all practical purposes. But yeah, if you're looking at history from its highs and not its lows, if you're always trying to rewrite it, whoever wins gets to write the story history is based upon he who was the winner, whoever got the high points, whoever won the war, they get to write the story.

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So you asked for it. We're getting it everything you ask for you. And you know, even if you're the most crazy liberal, well, maybe not socialists and communists will skip them. But the bottom line is, the overwhelming majority of the rational thinking people in the country is 75 80% you asked for this. You wanted it. You've been talking about, complaining about, well, now you got it. So the reality in life is you're gonna get a bloodletting. The good bloodletting. This is not like when we had a

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George Washington is president, and they killed him with all the leeches. Didn't know any better. No, this is a bloodletting. It's a good bloodletting. We got to let a bunch of people go. Gotta let companies go under. And you know what? Here's the thing, when one door closes, another one opens. Oh, I've heard of that before.

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More. It's true. Ask the Luddites they no longer could do could keep up doing it by hand, and the looms were doing what they're doing. They had to get new jobs. Oh, but my kids, oh, they've always been in the business. Well, got news for you. It's kind of like the VCR. It ain't around anymore. Oh, there may be a few of them, but nobody's making tapes anymore. Okay, so with that, I appreciate your time and consideration. I hope you kind of got a handle on this. And one last thing,

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everything that we're doing, falls under the same concept I've talked about for many, many years. Okay, the reason why I don't like people calling themselves financial planners, I hate can't stand that thing. Here's the reason why the solution to all problems is one of four. There's only four solutions no matter. Look, if you're not financially independent, and you work because you want to work, not because you have to work, because you really enjoy it, that is nirvana. I mean, you're doing what you want to do, and you're getting paid. Okay? It's like a really successful musician. I mean, they're having a good time making bank having a Oh, it's great. Oh, you could retire. No man, I'm having a ball. I'm going to play until the day I die because I'm having a ball. But if you're if you're not financially independent, it's always the same thing.

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Make more spend less, adjust your expectations or do a combination of the three. That's it. Solutions, never more difficult. It just takes a common sense businessman or woman with a lot of chutzpah to say, Yo, dude, you got no clothes on, King or not, you're naked, and so that's what Trump is doing. Yo. Wall Street, yo banks, Yo everybody. We're going broke faster than you can say broke, broke broke, and if we don't do something about it, we're a crook without a paddle. We got jobs that are meaningless. I mean, they are literally college graduate. They got they like, what's his name? Uh, Jethro on on Beverly Hill Bucha. You can cipher, real good. Okay, you got granny. You can cook vittles, real good. But ain't gonna play in Peoria. And that's the issue, and we've been taken advantage of. So we got a guy who says, pound salt. Let's get a good blood letting get the country back on the road with that typical New Tyler, too. I'm out here later bike

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for a reservation to a casual cocktail conversation, call or text, 352-612-1000,

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again, That's 352-612-1000,

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You

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