The Great Russian Spy Farce: A Masterclass in Ineptitude

Germany's domestic security agency revealed some laughably amateurish Russian espionage attempts of late and it’s worth looking at what is going on from a business forecasting view.

Let’s begin.

The Russians have resorted to the classic but notoriously unreliable method of simply paying people for information. Russia, the supposed master of covert operations, is throwing money around like it's a high-stakes poker game. This approach is a bit like betting on a losing horse, hoping it will win the race someday. You see, paying informants is a risky business. These people will give you information, sure, but the quality is questionable at best. And when the cash flow stops, there's a good chance they might sell you out.

Contrast the pay-to-play approach with a more sophisticated strategy of placing homegrown trained agents under diplomatic cover. Key: Diplomatic Cover. The Russians have long been the champions of this tactic, slipping their spies into embassies around the world under the guise of diplomats. Why? Because unlike the U.S., which excels in electronic surveillance, or China, which can deploy a small army of spies, Russia lacks the technological prowess and sheer manpower. So, they rely on a few highly trained agents.

Note: As of this writing, China has approximately 260,000 students attending U.S. universities, while there are between (a total now) of 500 to 750 Americans attending China universities. This is a topic I will discuss at length in a future edition of Thoughts.

This strategy worked brilliantly for the Soviets and continued to serve post-Soviet Russia well—until they blundered into the Ukraine war. In a rare moment of unity, European nations collectively decided to declare Russian diplomats’ persona non grata and sent them packing. Not only that, but they shared their lists of expelled spies with everyone, effectively blowing the cover of thousands of Russian operatives in one fell swoop. This has not happened before. See: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/03/28/7335191/ or https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-security-chief-says-47-russian-spy-networks-uncovered-last-year-2024-02-25/ or https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-spy-agents-fsb-b2046286.html This type of civilized world cooperation is unheard of.

Imagine the chaos in Russian intelligence circles. For decades, they'd been playing the spy game, carefully placing their assets in strategic positions, only to see their entire network dismantled overnight. Before, if a few spies were exposed, they’d just be reassigned to another embassy. But now? Not so much. Even neutral countries like Brazil are wary of accepting Russian diplomats after being handed lists of known spies.

The fallout is significant. The most effective tool in Russia's espionage arsenal has been effectively neutralized. These former spies can't just pivot to new roles like assassins or analysts without extensive retraining. And let’s face it, Russia's demographic issues mean they don't have a fresh batch of young recruits ready to step up. The death toll in Russia, as a result of the war is devastating to “baby making.” They are importing mongrels, mixed-breed, half-wits from around the world to supplement their military ranks, and like their domestic mutts, the Ukrainians are cutting them down and sending them home in boxes or with “useless” pieces; if you get the drift.

So, what’s left for these outed operatives? Most will likely be reassigned within Russia, where the government uses an extensive network of spies to keep its own population in check. Yes, in a country that’s more of a multi-ethnic empire than a cohesive nation-state, internal surveillance is key to preventing rebellions.

Note: Multi-ethnic anything, requires extreme surveillance, management, oversight, and insanely complex because of the volume, policies and procedures as connecting the dots with common sense and common experience “does not exist.”

The bottom line is this, Russia’s grand espionage strategy has been thoroughly gutted. While their agents still have a role to play, it’s largely confined to within their own borders.

The great Russian spy threat is now and continues to be political party infiltration with pro-Russian talking heads (both elected and unelecte.) The joke’s on them, and it’s a punchline that the Western world is more than happy to deliver. With that said, never take them for granted or turn your back on them.